{ "accountability": { "claim": "Official records say hotel accommodation was block-booked at a fixed monthly price payable even below 100% occupancy, while hotels cost more than six times standard dispersal. The same system did not apply service credits to hotels, and the Home Affairs Committee recorded \u00a345.8 million of excess profit due back but not yet reclaimed when it examined the system.", "evidence_chain": [ { "fact": "Hotels were block-booked for exclusive use and the fixed monthly price was payable irrespective of whether the available property was used at 100% occupancy.", "id": "hotel_payment_rule", "location": "PDF pp. 6 and 8", "source": "Home Office ministerial response", "url": "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/" }, { "fact": "The official average rates were \u00a3144.98 per person-night for contingency hotels and \u00a323.25 for standard dispersal.", "id": "hotel_cost_differential", "location": "Ministerial response PDF p. 11; Committee paragraph 20", "source": "Home Office ministerial response; Home Affairs Committee report", "urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/", "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/" ] }, { "fact": "The Committee recorded that hotels carried less financial risk for providers because they were paid whether or not rooms were occupied, and that hotels could be more profitable.", "id": "supplier_incentive", "location": "Paragraph 27", "source": "Home Affairs Committee report", "url": "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/" }, { "fact": "The Home Office did not apply service credits for performance failures at hotels; the Committee called this an inexplicable and unacceptable failure of accountability.", "id": "hotel_penalty_gap", "location": "Committee paragraphs 46 and 52; ministerial response PDF p. 8", "source": "Home Affairs Committee report; Home Office ministerial response", "urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/", "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/" ] }, { "fact": "The Home Office could not provide a complete evidence trail for audited Clearsprings hotel invoices and could not prove that all amounts paid were genuinely owed.", "id": "invoice_evidence_gap", "location": "Paragraph 36", "source": "Home Affairs Committee report", "url": "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/" }, { "fact": "\u00a345.8 million was recorded as due back at the 2025 examination; the later PAC report records the Home Office statement that \u00a346 million had been clawed back.", "id": "profit_recovery_timing", "location": "Home Affairs Committee paragraph 70; PAC 2026 paragraph 29", "source": "Home Affairs Committee report; Public Accounts Committee 2026 report", "urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/", "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/53438/documents/298802/default/" ] } ], "facts": { "dispersal_cost_per_person_night_gbp": 23.25, "excess_profit_due_total_gbp": 45800000.0, "hotel_cost_multiplier_vs_dispersal": 6.2356989247311825, "hotel_cost_per_person_night_gbp": 144.98, "hotel_fixed_price_below_full_occupancy": true, "hotel_invoice_evidence_gap": true, "hotel_service_credits_not_levied": true, "reported_excess_profit_clawback_gbp_2026": 46000000.0 }, "headline": "How can this be allowed? The contract rules explicitly allowed it.", "not_claim": "This does not by itself prove that every unoccupied room was paid for, that a provider acted unlawfully, or that the full cost difference is avoidable. It shows what the contract and oversight rules permitted.", "source_urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/", "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/", "https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/home-offices-asylum-accommodation-contracts.pdf" ], "tier": "Strong Signal" }, "authority_count": 296, "caveat": "This explorer joins aggregate measures by present-day authority and time only. It does not link people, households or cases across systems.", "headline_metrics": [ { "as_of": "2018Q2\u20132026Q1", "format": "decimal3", "label": "Support-density inequality between councils", "note": "Distribution between present-day authorities only.", "so_what": "The load spread to more councils after 2022Q2, but this does not mean the places already carrying it were relieved.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/geography/geographicalproducts/namescodesandlookups/lookups" ], "unit": "mean between-authority Gini after 2022Q2", "value": 0.5379214709859589 }, { "as_of": "31 March 2025", "format": "integer", "label": "Housing-register households", "note": "Summed from the latest panel quarter (2025Q4); the annual LAHS register stock is repeated across quarters in the panel.", "so_what": "The queue remains the relevant scale of housing pressure; register totals can also change when councils revise their rules.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/local-authority-housing-statistics-open-data" ], "unit": "households on local-authority housing registers", "value": 1340527.0 }, { "as_of": "2024/25", "format": "percent1", "label": "Temporary accommodation \u2192 social letting", "note": "39,057 households; up from 11.2% in 2018/19. The pressure-release route is homelessness and temporary accommodation.", "so_what": "Social housing is functioning as a homelessness pressure-release route; this is not evidence of an asylum-to-social-housing pathway.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/social-housing-lettings-in-england-april-2024-to-march-2025/social-housing-lettings-in-england-tenants-april-2024-to-march-2025" ], "unit": "share of new social lettings from temporary accommodation", "value": 0.149 }, { "as_of": "2024/25", "format": "percent1", "label": "Statutorily homeless \u2192 social letting", "note": "This is the stronger national housing-pressure benchmark; it is not an asylum-specific measure.", "so_what": "Homelessness is the much larger housing-allocation story in the national CORE data.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/social-housing-lettings-in-england-april-2024-to-march-2025/social-housing-lettings-in-england-tenants-april-2024-to-march-2025" ], "unit": "share of new social lettings to statutorily homeless households", "value": 0.28300000000000003 }, { "as_of": "2024/25", "format": "percent1", "label": "NASS immediately before social letting", "note": "1,200 households. The release says asylum seekers are not eligible for social housing; this measures the previous night\u2019s housing situation.", "so_what": "The measured national route is small: it describes the previous night\u2019s housing situation, not current asylum-seeker eligibility.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/social-housing-lettings-in-england-april-2024-to-march-2025/social-housing-lettings-in-england-tenants-april-2024-to-march-2025" ], "unit": "share of new social lettings whose previous housing was NASS", "value": 0.005 }, { "as_of": "2024/25", "format": "integer", "label": "Housing-register rule changes", "note": "24 local-priority changes, 3 statutory/guidance changes, and 15 for both reasons.", "so_what": "A falling or rising register count cannot be read as changing need without checking what councils changed in their qualification rules.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/social-housing-lettings-in-england-april-2024-to-march-2025/social-housing-lettings-in-england-tenants-april-2024-to-march-2025" ], "unit": "of 296 authorities changing housing-register criteria", "value": 42 }, { "as_of": "FY2024-25", "format": "currency2", "label": "Home Office hotel spend proxy", "note": "National spend divided by mean national hotel population; not a contract price or authority-year matched.", "so_what": "It shows the scale of the hotel bill, but it cannot be treated as the price paid by every hotel for every person-night.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-annual-report-and-accounts-2024-to-2025", "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables" ], "unit": "GBP per Home Office hotel person-night", "value": 169.7563501253014 }, { "as_of": "project annual observations", "format": "currency2", "label": "Council TA cost proxy", "note": "Annual expenditure/stock proxy; household-night and local-authority-year, not a procurement quote.", "so_what": "It says council temporary accommodation is costly too; it does not establish an apples-to-apples gap with Home Office hotel spending.", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/local-authority-revenue-expenditure-and-financing" ], "unit": "median GBP per council TA household-night", "value": 212.05479452054794 }, { "as_of": "October 2025 ministerial response", "format": "text", "label": "Hotel payment rule", "note": "Block-booked exclusive-use hotel contract rule; this is not a measured vacancy rate.", "so_what": "The public risk was written into the payment rule: the Home Office bought exclusive use, not only occupied rooms.", "source_urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/" ], "unit": "fixed hotel price payable below 100% occupancy", "value": true }, { "as_of": "June 2025 cost rates", "format": "decimal2", "label": "Hotel premium over dispersal", "note": "Official average rates; the comparison is person-night to person-night.", "so_what": "When the fixed-price hotel rule is in use, the expensive option is also the lower-risk option for the provider.", "source_urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/" ], "unit": "times standard dispersal cost (\u00a3144.98 vs \u00a323.25 per person-night)", "value": 6.2356989247311825 }, { "as_of": "October 2025", "format": "currency2", "label": "Profit recovery delayed", "note": "Mears \u00a313.8m plus Clearsprings \u00a332m; the later 2026 PAC report records a \u00a346m clawback statement.", "so_what": "The issue was not an invisible allegation: Parliament was told the money was due, audited, and still unrecovered at that examination.", "source_urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49900/documents/297953/default/" ], "unit": "recorded as due back from two providers at the October 2025 examination", "value": 45800000.0 }, { "as_of": "October 2025 ministerial response", "format": "text", "label": "Hotel performance penalty", "note": "The response says providers reported KPIs, but service credits were not levied for the specified requirements.", "so_what": "The department could see performance reporting without applying the same financial consequence across accommodation types.", "source_urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/49663/documents/265736/default/" ], "unit": "hotel service credits levied for the specified requirements", "value": "NO" }, { "as_of": "September 2023 purchase; PAC report", "format": "currency2", "label": "Northeye acquisition", "note": "The site was later deemed unsuitable for asylum accommodation and intended for transfer or sale.", "so_what": "This is the concrete local case: speed and weak due diligence produced an asset that did not deliver the promised accommodation.", "source_urls": [ "https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/46478/documents/236162/default/" ], "unit": "spent on a site that did not deliver its planned 1,400 beds", "value": 15400000.0 }, { "as_of": "2025", "format": "integer", "label": "NTS threshold exposure", "note": "Observed statuses only; suppressed and not-applicable authorities are not counted.", "so_what": "This is a fairness benchmark between authorities, not a record that a transfer occurred.", "source_urls": [ "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/c1d5ac76-d738-42c7-be46-f915da3485eb", "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/4cf02bf8-b4c7-46e5-a63e-702b431db15b", "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unaccompanied-asylum-seeking-children-interim-national-transfer-scheme/national-transfer-scheme-protocol-for-unaccompanied-asylum-seeking-children-accessible" ], "unit": "authorities at or above configured NTS threshold exposure", "value": 9 } ], "refuted_propositions": [ { "label": "P1: full dispersal did not equalise the load", "note": "Between-authority Gini, top-decile share and coefficient of variation all fall after 2022Q2.", "result": "Refuted by the pre-specified concentration test" }, { "label": "P2: hotel-taking areas absorbed a later homelessness cost", "note": "Asylum-reason duties do not rise at +1 or +2 quarters; the treatment remains a contingency-fall proxy.", "result": "Refuted by the current proxy event study" } ], "sources": { "annual_report": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-annual-report-and-accounts-2024-to-2025", "d09": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables", "homelessness": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-homelessness", "housing_registers": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/local-authority-housing-statistics-open-data", "imd": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2025", "nts": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unaccompanied-asylum-seeking-children-interim-national-transfer-scheme/national-transfer-scheme-protocol-for-unaccompanied-asylum-seeking-children-accessible", "ons": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/geography/geographicalproducts/namescodesandlookups/lookups", "social_housing": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/social-housing-lettings-in-england-april-2024-to-march-2025/social-housing-lettings-in-england-tenants-april-2024-to-march-2025", "support": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables", "ta_cost": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/local-authority-revenue-expenditure-and-financing", "uasc": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/c1d5ac76-d738-42c7-be46-f915da3485eb", "uasc_funding": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unaccompanied-asylum-seeking-children-uasc-grant-instructions/uasc-funding-instructions-to-local-authorities-2025-to-2026-accessible", "uasc_population": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/4cf02bf8-b4c7-46e5-a63e-702b431db15b" } }